{
  "schema": "money2046.onchain.v1",
  "rule": "Each /onchain analysis publishes one ratio, risk, quality, or calendar reading for an agent about to move money or take a position. It does not publish a volume, TVL, market-cap, dominance, or top-N board. Missing or failed inputs fail closed to INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE. OK is a reading with sources, method, confidence, and limitations — not a VERIFIED_FRESH settlement.",
  "slug": "arb-unlock-risk",
  "question": "When is the next unlock, and where does it go?",
  "why_agent": "Dilution risk to its book.",
  "metric_kind": "calendar",
  "value": {
    "nextAt": "2026-10-16",
    "observedMovement": null,
    "foundationCadence": "per_second",
    "events": [
      {
        "at": "2026-10-16",
        "recipientClass": "team",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00561250"
      },
      {
        "at": "2026-10-16",
        "recipientClass": "investor",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00365208"
      },
      {
        "at": "2026-11-16",
        "recipientClass": "team",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00561250"
      },
      {
        "at": "2026-11-16",
        "recipientClass": "investor",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00365208"
      },
      {
        "at": "2026-12-16",
        "recipientClass": "team",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00561250"
      },
      {
        "at": "2026-12-16",
        "recipientClass": "investor",
        "shareOfInitial": "0.00365208"
      }
    ]
  },
  "unit": "share_of_initial",
  "as_of": "2026-10-06T16:41:51.957Z",
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Arbitrum DAO token circulating supply",
      "url": "https://docs.arbitrum.foundation/token-supply"
    },
    {
      "name": "Arbitrum DAO airdrop and distribution",
      "url": "https://docs.arbitrum.foundation/airdrop-eligibility-distribution"
    }
  ],
  "method_url": "/onchain/arb-unlock-risk/#method",
  "confidence": "low",
  "limitations": [
    "Post-unlock movement is not observed. The cited note does not publish vesting-contract addresses, so transfers after an unlock are not attributed.",
    "Foundation tokens vest continuously (the note says every second) from 17 April 2023. They are not placed on this monthly calendar.",
    "The DAO treasury moves when governance deploys tokens. That is not this clock.",
    "Figures are shares of the 10 billion initial supply. Token counts and a cap board are not published.",
    "A reading whose UTC date is the 16th treats that day's unlock as already current."
  ],
  "status": "OK"
}